Nebulized Heparin for COVID19-associated Acute Respiratory Failure
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-09-04, after 2021-05-20 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: receivingfailurebleedingdialysisspinal
Phrases that lowered it: respiratoryinvestigatehistory19cardiovascular -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 52312 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 52312 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5874 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- heparin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nebulised Heparin to Reduce COVID-19 Induced Acute Lung Injury NCT04511923 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Fibrinolytic Therapy to Treat ARDS in the Setting of COVID-19 Infection NCT04357730 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Enriched Heparin Anti COVID-19 Trial NCT04743011 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- ANTIcoagulation in Severe COVID-19 Patients NCT04808882 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Nebulised Heparin in Patients With Severe COVID-19 NCT04545541 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.