Botulinum Toxin A in Frequent and Chronic Tension-type Headache
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-12-04, after 2022-10-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paincontrolledplaceboheadachechronic
Phrases that lowered it: participantseffectdiseasespatientsdrugs -
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6959 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 14 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 67268 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6959 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 18.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- botulinum toxin type a
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Follow the Sutures. A New Procedure for Injection of Botulinum Toxin for Chronic Migraine NCT03543254 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Botox in the Treatment of Forward Head Posture With Associated Episodic Headache Disorder NCT01350375 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Botulinum Toxin Type A Blockade of the Sphenopalatine Ganglion in Treatment-refractory Chronic Migraine NCT04069897 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- OnabotulinumtoxinA for the Treatment of New Daily Persistent Headache: an Open Label Study NCT01920945 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- Study of BOTOX Injections in Prevention of Migraine in Adult Participants With Episodic Migraine NCT05028569 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.