Human Intravenous Interferon Beta-Ia Safety and Preliminary Efficacy in Hospitalized Subjects With COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-04-04, after 2021-08-23 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 66.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dexamethasonesubject hasits excipientspriorpatient
Phrases that lowered it: pressurerespiratory19airway28 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 33564 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 66.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 228119 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 33564 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dexamethasone, peginterferon beta1a
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clinical Study for the Treatment With Interferon-ß-1a (IFNß-1a) of COVID-19 Patients NCT04449380 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- Inhaled Interferon α2b for the Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) NCT04988217 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Pegylated Interferon Lambda Treatment for COVID-19 NCT04343976 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
- Pegylated Interferon - α2b With SARSCoV- 2 (COVID-19) NCT04480138 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
- Phase 1/2 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Inhaled IBIO123 in Participants With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Illness NCT05298813 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.