Efficacy and Safety of Evinacumab in Adult Patients With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia for the Prevention of Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: recurrentplaceboto determinetherapystable
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinationscreeningkgevaluate theto evaluate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 13 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Following Repeat-Dose of Evinacumab (Anti-ANGPTL3) in Patients With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) at Risk for Acute Pancreatitis NCT03452228 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Epanova® for Lowering Very High Triglycerides II (EVOLVE II) NCT02009865 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Pegozafermin in Subjects With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia NCT05852431 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study of Olezarsen (Formerly Known as AKCEA-APOCIII-LRx) Administered to Patients With Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome (FCS) NCT04568434 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Outcomes Study to Assess STatin Residual Risk Reduction With EpaNova in HiGh CV Risk PatienTs With Hypertriglyceridemia NCT02104817 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.