Effectiveness of Colchicine Among Patients With COVID-19 Infection
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-06-18, after 2021-05-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsillnesslungeffectiveacute
Phrases that lowered it: evaluateaim ofcolchicinegoutbetween 18 -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 24 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18200 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2377 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Investigate the Treatment Effect of Colchicine in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04667780 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- EFFICACY OF COLCHICINE IN IMPROVING CLINICAL OUTCOMES IN PATIENTS WITH MILD TO MODERATE COVID-19 PNEUMONIA IN LAHORE: A RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIAL NCT06847204 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Colchicine in COVID-19: a Pilot Study NCT04375202 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Trial to Study the Benefit of Colchicine in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04350320 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- The GReek Study in the Effects of Colchicine in Covid-19 cOmplications Prevention NCT04326790 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.