Open Label Study of ATH-1017 for Treatment of Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 42% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradextensioncarcinomasubjects
  Phrases that lowered it: depressivedailymalepsychoticmalignant tumor
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ATH-1017 for Treatment of Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT04488419 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study of ATH-1017 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT04491006 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• This is a Safety and Tolerability Study Evaluating a New Treatment for Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01676935 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Open Label Extension Study Evaluating Safety and Tolerability of AAB-003 (PF-05236812) in Subject With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01369225 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Lecanemab in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT01767311 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.