EU SolidAct: An Adaptive Pandemic and Emerging Infection Platform Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-01-23, after 2021-06-03 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: leukemiacancertransplantacutepatient
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantinvestigatorvaccineclinical -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 239 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 239 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 55 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2695 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 966 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- baricitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PROphylaxis for paTiEnts at Risk of COVID-19 infecTion -V NCT04870333 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Prospective Study in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Cancer and SARS-CoV-2 Infection NCT04333914 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Investigating Otilimab in Patients With Severe Pulmonary COVID-19 Related Disease NCT04376684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Immune Modulators for Treating COVID-19 NCT04593940 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- mulTi-Arm Therapeutic Study in Pre-ICu Patients Admitted With Covid-19 - Experimental Drugs and Mechanisms NCT04393246 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.