A Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of mRNA-3705 in Participants With Isolated Methylmalonic Acidemia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (60 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2026-04-01, after 2021-08-06 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertransplantationorganof studytherapy
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsparticipantevaluate theto evaluateparticipants -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 1 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 47 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- coenzyme a
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ataluren for Nonsense Mutation Methylmalonic Acidemia NCT01141075 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
- Gene Therapy With hLB-001 in Pediatric Patients With Severe Methylmalonic Acidemia NCT04581785 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
- A First in Human, Dose Escalation Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of BBP-671 in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Propionic Acidemia or Methylmalonic Acidemia NCT04836494 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
- Study of HST5040 in Subjects With Propionic or Methylmalonic Acidemia NCT04732429 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- Open-Label, Dose-Escalating Study Assessing Safety, Tolerability, Efficacy, of RP103 in Mitochondrial Disease NCT02023866 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.