Post-Ablation Pericarditis Reduction Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-10-01, after 2021-05-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsulnpostml mindetermine
Phrases that lowered it: use ofdrugsgrapefruitritonavirclinical -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18200 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2377 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Post-Ablation Pericarditis Reduction Study (PAPERS) NCT06731595 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Impact of Short-course Colchicine Versus Placebo After Pulmonary Vein Isolation (IMPROVE-PVI Pilot) NCT04160117 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Colchicine and CRP in Atrial Fibrillation and AF Ablation NCT01755949 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Colchicine to Prevent Post-Pericardiotomy Syndrome and Atrial Fibrillation NCT02177266 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- Effect of Low Dose ColchiciNe on the InciDence of POAF NCT03015831 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.