A Study of Zika Vaccine mRNA-1893 in Adult Participants Living in Endemic and Non-Endemic Flavivirus Areas
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-07-26, after 2021-06-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diagnosispriorunstableadequatekey
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzaparticipantvaccinationhealthy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of Zika Vaccine mRNA-1893 in Healthy Flavivirus Seropositive and Seronegative Adults NCT04064905 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of mRNA-1325 in Healthy Adult Subjects NCT03014089 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety, Immunogenicity, and Dose Ranging Study of Inactivated Zika Virus Vaccine in Healthy Participants NCT03343626 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of the Live Attenuated Zika Vaccine rZIKV/D4Δ30-713 in Flavivirus-naïve Adults NCT03611946 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Trial to Assess the Safety and Immunogenicity of an Inactivated, Adjuvanted Whole Zika Virus Vaccine Candidate (VLA1601) in Healthy Adults NCT06334393 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.