A Study of a Single Dose of Inclacumab to Reduce Re-admission in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease and Recurrent Vaso-occlusive Crises

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paingenotypeplaceboto screeningsickle
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantssingle doseparenteralblood
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2016 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 183 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 12 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Inclacumab in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease Experiencing Vaso-occlusive Crises NCT04935879 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Efficacy of Crovalimab for the Management of Acute Uncomplicated Vaso-Occlusive Episodes (VOE) in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease (SCD). NCT04912869 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Sevuparin Infusion for the Management of Acute VOC in Subjects With SCD NCT02515838 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Study of SANGUINATE™ In the Treatment of Sickle Cell Disease Patients With Vaso-Occlusive Crisis NCT02411708 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study of SANGUINATE for the Treatment of Vaso-occlusive Crisis (VOC) in Adult Sickle Cell Disease Patients NCT02672540 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.