Olaparib and Bevacizumab in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: small cellcell lunglung cancerbrainrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: amlmalefemalethe trialupper
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of AZD6738 and Olaparib Combination Therapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients [SUKSES-N2] NCT03428607 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• OLAParib COmbinations NCT02576444 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• AZD 2811 Monotherapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients [SUKSES-N3] NCT03366675 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• AZD1775 Combined With Olaparib in Patients With Refractory Solid Tumors NCT02511795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Two-stage Simon Design Phase II Study for Non-BRCA MBC Patients With HRD Treated With Olaparib Single Agent NCT03367689 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.