The Evaluation of Vitiligous Lesions Repigmentation After Topical Administration of Methotrexate in Patients With Active Vitiligo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningtopicaldiagnosis ofprovisionsurgical
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsmethotrexateupperskinevaluate the
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparitive Study Between Uvb Alone and Uvb With Topical Tacrolimus 0.03% for the Treatment of Vitiligo NCT05577637 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• The Evaluation of Vitiligous Lesions Repigmentation After the Administration of Atorvastatin Calcium Salt and Simvastatin-acid Sodium Salt in Patients With Active Vitiligo NCT03247400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity With Oral Tablets of Upadacitinib in Adult Participants With Non-Segmental Vitiligo NCT04927975 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Ruxolitinib Cream With Phototherapy in Participants With Vitiligo NCT05247489 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Mechanism of Action of Ruxolitinib Cream in Subjects With Vitiligo (TRuE-V MOA) NCT04896385 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.