A Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics (Uptake of Drugs by the Body), Safety and Tolerability of AZD4831 in Participants With Severe Renal Impairment and Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (233 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorpotentialiidefinednon
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersparticipantsbmimale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1707 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 191 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of AZD5718 in Participants With Proteinuric Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04492722 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• To Assess the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of AZD8233 in Participants With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and Healthy Participants. NCT05065463 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of AZD4144 in Participants With Severe Renal Impairment, End-stage Kidney Disease, and in Healthy Participants NCT06693765 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study to Investigate the Effect of Renal Impairment on the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of AZD0780 NCT06592482 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Effect of Renal Impairment on the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of AZD6234 NCT06845813 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.