A Comparison of Postprandial Glucose After a MMTT, and the Metabolic Effects of Insulin Withdrawal in a Crossover Study in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabetesinsulinwith typestablecarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgbloodvaccine90alcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of DA-1241 in Healthy Male Subjects and Subjects With T2DM NCT03646721 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Pilot Study to Explore the Efficacy of DAPAglifozin as add-on to Closed-loop Control in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes NCT02987738 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of GSK1362885 in Type 2 Diabetics NCT01013766 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Evaluate HM-002-1005 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT06498284 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study in Type 2 Diabetics of Single and Multiple Doses of Orally Administered GSK1292263 to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics NCT01119846 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.