Comparison of Qutenza (8% Capsaicin) With a Low-dose Capsaicin for Treatment of Nerve Pain After Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsubjects withthe subjectdiagnosisscore
  Phrases that lowered it: kneeand safetytopicalthe efficacyefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AP-325 in Subjects With Peripheral Post-surgical Neuropathic Pain NCT04429919 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Study of NGX-4010 With the Use of Open Label Lidocaine (2.5%)/Prilocaine (2.5%) Cream for the Treatment of Postherpetic Neuralgia (PHN) NCT00916942 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Study in Neuropathic Pain Patients With Peripheral Nerve Injury NCT00969059 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Analgesic Activity of ATx08-001 in Subjects With Postherpetic Neuralgia NCT01318226 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Dose-Tolerability Titration Study to Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of Perampanel (E2007) In Patients With Post-Herpetic Neuralgia (PHN) NCT00592774 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.