BEMPEG With Pembrolizumab vs Pembrolizumab Alone in Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent HNSCC (PROPEL-36)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 34% of the time (35 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcelltumorcarcinomahead
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofinvestigatorthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 36914 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8872 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab Combined With Cetuximab for Treatment of Recurrent/Metastatic Head & Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03082534 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) or Placebo With Chemoradiation in Participants With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-412/KEYNOTE-412) NCT03040999 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Combination Study With Eftilagimod Alpha (a Soluble LAG-3 Fusion Protein) and Pembrolizumab in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic HNSCC NCT04811027 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) for First Line Treatment of Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Cancer of the Head and Neck (MK-3475-048/KEYNOTE-048) NCT02358031 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Activity and Safety of Danvatirsen and Pembrolizumab in HNSCC NCT05814666 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.