Liposomal Bupivacaine Versus Non-liposomal Bupivacaine for Total Shoulder Arthroplasty
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-05-04, after 2021-08-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painopioidchronicanalgesicnerve
Phrases that lowered it: totalefficacyparticipateconsent formcomparison -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 208 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 208 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 55 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13008 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1209 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 67.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bupivacaine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Liposome Bupivacaine Interscalene Total Shoulder NCT03587636 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- An International Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of SABER®-Bupivacaine for Postoperative Pain Control in Patients Following Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery NCT00993798 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Safety and Effectiveness Study of SABER®-Bupivacaine for Pain Following Shoulder Surgery NCT00818363 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Comparing TAP Blocks Bupivacaine, and Placebo for Plane NCT04685876 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Spinal Nalbuphine for Analgesia in Total Hip Arthroplasty NCT06577155 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.