The Effects of Using Yupingfeng Powder with Variation for the Treatment of Allergic Rhinitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungchroniclifeimprovedisease
  Phrases that lowered it: rhinitisand safetyallergicnasaldiseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Qi-tonifying Chinese Herbal Products for Treatment of Allergic Rhinitis NCT01631032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Controlled Trial of Chinese Herbal Medicine to Treat Allergic Rhinitis NCT02027194 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Nasal Irrigation With Chinese Herbal Medicine as an Adjunctive Treatment in Allergic Rhinitis NCT05901532 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Fluticasone Furoate Nasal Spray for 2 Weeks in Chinese Adult and Adolescent Subjects With Allergic Rhinitis NCT01231464 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Benjakul Extract and Loratadine for Treatment Allergic Rhinitis Patients NCT03376594 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.