Clinical Trial For Early SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Treatment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (59 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-02-16, after 2020-11-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diabetesmellituscancerprotocollung
Phrases that lowered it: volunteerswith chronicpainjointinvestigate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 91029 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 59 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 59 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 91029 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 23027 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- favipiravir, hydroxychloroquine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Favipiravir vs Hydroxychloroquine vs Control in COVID -19 NCT04387760 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Protect: Study With Hydroxychloroquine for Prevention and Early Phase Treatment of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) NCT04363827 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
- Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir-HU NCT04940871 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 NCT04342221 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial: Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients NCT04345692 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.