Evaluation of Trimer 4571 Therapeutic Vaccination in Adults Living With HIV on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-01-16, after 2021-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: entrypriorenrollmentchronicreceiving
Phrases that lowered it: copies mlparticipanthiv rnaarthealthy -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6400 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 508 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alum, aluminum hydroxide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Comparison of Dendritic Cell-Based Therapeutic Vaccine Strategies for HIV Functional Cure NCT03758625 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Dose, Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of an HIV-1 Vaccine, VRC-HIVRGP096-00-VP, With Alum in Healthy Adults NCT03783130 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of HIV-1 Vaccines C62-M4 or C1C62-M3M4 in Persons With HIV-1 Suppressed on ART NCT05604209 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Safety, Immunogenicity, Efficacy of Ad26.Mos4.HIV, MVA-BN-HIV and PGT121, PGDM1400, and VRC07-523LS in HIV-1-Infected Adults NCT04983030 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess Safety and Ability to Induce Immune Responses of HIV-1 Vaccines M3 and M4 Given Alone or in Combination in HIV-infected Adults NCT03844386 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.