A Phase 2a Study of TPN-101 in Patients With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainassociatedsignificant hematologicalcaretime of
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsplasmastudy todeviationhepatic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 41 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 86 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AMX0035 and Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT06122662 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Ascending Doses of NIO752 in Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT04539041 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of C2N-8E12 in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT02494024 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Safety and Tolerability of UCB0107 in Study Participants With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP) NCT04185415 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ABBV-8E12 in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP) NCT02985879 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.