Treosulfan-Based Versus Clofarabine-Based Conditioning Before Donor Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant for the Treatment of Myelodysplastic Syndromes or Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorcancerstemcellsstandard
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyhepaticapplythe effecteffect of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 300 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clofarabine and Low-Dose Total-Body Irradiation in Treating Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia Undergoing Donor Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplant NCT01252667 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Fludarabine Phosphate, Cyclophosphamide, Total-Body Irradiation, and Donor Bone Marrow Transplant Followed by Donor Natural Killer Cell Therapy, Mycophenolate Mofetil, and Tacrolimus in Treating Patients With Hematologic Cancer NCT00789776 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Graft-Versus-Host Disease Prophylaxis in Treating Patients With Hematologic Malignancies Undergoing Unrelated Donor Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplant NCT01231412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Triple GVHD Prophylaxis Regimens for Nonmyeloablative or Reduced Intensity Conditioning Unrelated Mobilized Blood Cell Transplantation NCT03246906 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Selective Depletion of CD45RA+ T Cells From Allogeneic Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Grafts From HLA-Matched Related and Unrelated Donors in Preventing GVHD NCT02220985 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.