Efficacy and Safety of Benralizumab in Patients With Non-cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1677 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomamonths priorscreeningstablehistory of
  Phrases that lowered it: participantperiodweekspatients whoantibiotic
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Benralizumab in Moderate to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) With a History of Frequent Exacerbations NCT04053634 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study in Patients With Non-cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 1323495 Are Tolerated and How BI 1323495 Affects Biomarkers of Inflammation NCT04656275 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Onset of Effect and Time Course of Change in Lung Function With Benralizumab in Severe, Uncontrolled Asthma Patients With Eosinophilic Inflammation NCT02869438 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Trial in Non-cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis Patients With Chronic Lung Infections Treated With Colistimethate Sodium. NCT03460704 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test Whether Different Doses of BI 1291583 Help People With Bronchiectasis NCT05238675 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.