A Clinical Trial of Intravenous Lidocaine After Spinal Surgery to Prevent Delirium and Reduce Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgerypainpostoperativeopioidspinal
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialadultmgphysicalparticipated
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 956 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 72208 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Prevention of Delirium and Complications Associated With Surgical Treatments Multi Center Clinical Trial NCT01690988 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Placebo Controlled Clinical Trial of the Postoperative Opioid Sparing Effects of Intraoperative Dexmedetomidine Infusion for Thoracic Surgery NCT01973452 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• The Influence of Postoperative Analgesia on Systemic Inflammatory Response and POCD After Femoral Fractures Surgery NCT02848599 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Effect of Dexmedetomidine Dosage on Postoperative Delirium in Geriatric Orthopedic Surgery NCT07443085 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• PANDORA: Delirium Prevention After Cardiac Surgery Using IV Acetaminophen to Prevent Postoperative Delirium in Older Cardiac Surgical Patients NCT04093219 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.