Evaluation of Protease Inhibition for COVID-19 in Standard-Risk Patients (EPIC-SR).

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (47 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1987 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 167 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationpfplaceboonsetprior
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsinvestigate19ritonavirtrial
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• EPIC-HR: Study of Oral PF-07321332/Ritonavir Compared With Placebo in Nonhospitalized High Risk Adults With COVID-19 NCT04960202 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study of a Potential Oral Treatment to Prevent COVID-19 in Adults Who Are Exposed to Household Member(s) With a Confirmed Symptomatic COVID-19 Infection NCT05047601 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• First-In-Human Study To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, And Pharmacokinetics Following Single Ascending And Multiple Ascending Doses of PF-07304814 In Hospitalized Participants With COVID-19. NCT04535167 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Study to Understand the Effect and Safety of the Study Medicine PF-07817883 in Adults Who Have Symptoms of COVID-19 But Are Not Hospitalized NCT05799495 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• PBI-0451 (Pomotrelvir) Phase 2 Study in Nonhospitalized Symptomatic Adults With COVID-19 NCT05543707 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.