Phase 2 Study of Bintrafusp Alfa in Recurrent/Metastatic Olfactory Neuroblastoma (BARON).

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartatrialfibrillationcoronarytherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantvaccinesinvestigatorchildren
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1413 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 350174 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 42317 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase I/II Study of Combination Immunotherapy for Advanced Cancers Including HPV-Associated Malignancies, Small Bowel, and Colon Cancers NCT04708470 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor M7824 and the Immunocytokine M9241 in Combination With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) in Adults With Advanced Pancreas Cancer NCT04327986 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• BDB001-102: Open Label Dose Escalation of BDB001 in Combination w Atezolizumab NCT04196530 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Bintrafusp Alfa and Pimasertib for the Treatment of Patients With Brain Metastases NCT04789668 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Docetaxel With or Without Bintrafusp Alfa for the Treatment of Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04396535 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.