Phase II Trial of Venetoclax and Rituximab as Initial Therapy in Older Patients With Mantle Cell Lymphoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellhcvstagesubject hashepatitis
  Phrases that lowered it: cell lymphomarituximabdrugrangemale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 193604 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 292 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 33589 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Study of Bendamustine and Rituximab Plus Venetoclax in Untreated Mantle Cell Lymphoma Over 60 Years of Age NCT03834688 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study of Venetoclax Plus DA-EPOCH-R for the Treatment of Aggressive B-Cell Lymphomas NCT03036904 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Ibrutinib, Lenalidomide and Rituximab for Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT02460276 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study of the Combination of Rituximab, Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, VELCADE, and Prednisone or Rituximab, Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, Vincristine, and Prednisone in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT00722137 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Ublituximab and Umbralisib With CHOP (U2-CHOP) Followed by U2 Maintenance (U2-CHOP-U2) in Previously Untreated Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL) NCT04692155 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.