Mechanisms of Interferon Gamma-primed Mesenchymal Stromal Cells (MSCs) for Moderate-to-severe Persistent Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (74 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsallogeneicdeterminehlacell
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantsparticipantvisitbronchodilator
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 610 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 623497 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 30 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Allogeneic Human Cells (hMSC) Via Intravenous Delivery in Patients With Mild Asthma NCT03137199 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CAT-354 NCT00873860 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Intravenously Administered Benralizumab (MEDI-563). NCT00768079 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of MEDI-528 in Adults NCT00968669 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging Study of Amlitelimab in Adult Participants With Moderate-to-severe Asthma NCT05421598 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.