A Study to Evaluate MK-0482 for Relapsed/Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) or Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia (CMML) (MK-0482-002)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplanttherapyheartcellcoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsmkevaluate thepharmacodynamicsto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1345 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of MK-8242 Alone and in Combination With Cytarabine in Participants With Acute Myelogenous Leukemia (P07649) NCT01451437 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Magrolimab, Azacitidine, and Venetoclax for the Treatment of Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04435691 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Movement of Lemzoparlimab in Body When Used Intravenously (IV) With Azacitidine Subcutaneously or IV and Venetoclax Orally in Participants With Acute Myeloid Leukemia and With Azacitidine With or Without Venetoclax in Participants With Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT04912063 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1b Master Trial to Investigate CPX-351 in Subjects With Previously Untreated Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04075747 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Bortezomib and Vorinostat in Treating Patients With High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome or Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT00818649 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.