Efficacy Evaluation of Shen Cao Gan Jiang Tang on Mild and Moderate COVID-19 Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-25, after 2021-08-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantpatientscanceruncontrolleddisease
Phrases that lowered it: respiratoryclinicaltype diabetesdiseases19 -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 64 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 64 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 526 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 66 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- asian ginseng
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Chinese Medicine for Patients With LCOVID-19 Symptoms NCT04924881 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Pilot Trial of XFBD, a TCM, in Persons With COVID-19 NCT04810689 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- JINZHEN for Treatment of Mild to Moderate COVID-19 NCT05092503 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study of Tanshinone Capsules Against COVID-19 NCT07123701 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Effect of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Severe COVID-19 NCT06714032 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.