A Phase III Confirmatory Study of K-237
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-08-26, after 2021-10-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: time ofhourswomenoxygenpressure
Phrases that lowered it: patients whojudgedtrialand safetyefficacy and -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3943 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 523 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ivermectin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- KAND567 Versus Placebo in Subjects Hospitalized With COVID-19 NCT06012565 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- Study of SHEN26 Capsule in Patients With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 NCT05676073 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Concentration of SNS812 in Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Patients NCT05941793 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2 Study of APX-115 in Hospitalized Patients With Confirmed Mild to Moderate COVID-19. NCT04880109 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
- Phase III Clinical Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of WPV01 in Patients With Mild/Moderate COVID-19 NCT06197217 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.