Denosumab and Osteoporotic Vertebral Compression Fracture
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-08-10, after 2020-01-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bonepatientsmrimarrowstatus
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofto investigatethe effectinvestigate theperiod -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 51.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 141963 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12119 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 141963 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12119 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 51.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- denosumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Denosumab Fracture Intervention Randomized Placebo Controlled Trial in Japanese Patients With Osteoporosis NCT00680953 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Study in Indian Postmenopausal Women With Osteoporosis to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Denosumab NCT01495000 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Study in Korean Postmenopausal Women With Osteoporosis to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Denosumab NCT01457950 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A High-resolution Peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography Study in Postmenopausal Women Previously Treated With Denosumab NCT00890981 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of MW031 in PMO Subjects NCT05215977 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.