PET Imaging of Cyclooxygenase in Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (35 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-01-30, after 2022-06-07 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mssclerosismribrainhours
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdiseasesasthmaaminotransferase -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 121327 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 112 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 121327 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7400 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- celecoxib, ketoprofen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Novel PET Radioligand as an Inflammatory Biomarker in Musculoskeletal Conditions NCT03912428 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
- PET Imaging of Neuroinflammation in Neurodegenerative Diseases Via a Novel Translocator Protein (TSPO) Radioligand NCT03958630 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of Microglial Activation in ALS With [18F]PBR06 (Peripheral Benzodiazepine Receptor-06) PET NCT03876002 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- [18F]SF12051 for Imaging the 18-kDa Translocator Protein (TSPO) in Brain and Whole Body of Healthy Subjects NCT05564429 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of [18F] PBR06 and PET as a Marker of Inflammation in Subjects With Neurological Conditions NCT01028209 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.