A Study to Test How Well a Medicine Called Nintedanib Helps People in China With Progressive Lung Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungpatientsprogressivetherapyrituximab
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvisitradayplacebo
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 672 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 14865 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Nintedanib in Patients With Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Disease (PF-ILD) NCT02999178 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study to Find Out Whether BI 1015550 Improves Lung Function in People With Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Diseases (PF-ILDs) NCT05321082 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK3915393 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT06317285 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of BG00011 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT03573505 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test Whether BI 1839100 Improves Cough in People With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis or Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT06360094 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.