A Ph 2 Trial With an Oral Tableted COVID-19 Vaccine
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-05-09, after 2021-10-22 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicdefinedpriorheartcancer
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationhealthyimmunogenicityreceipt -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 10 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 13 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 927 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 691 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- covid19 vaccine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of the Safety and Immunogenicity of a SARS-CoV-2 rS Nanoparticle Vaccine With/Without Matrix-M Adjuvant NCT04368988 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- COVID-19 Vaccination Using a 2nd Generation (E1/E2B/E3-Deleted) Adenoviral Platform in Healthy South African Adults NCT04710303 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of COVID-19 and Influenza Combination Vaccine NCT05519839 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity and Safety of a Booster Vaccination With a Recombinant Protein RBD Candidate Vaccine Against SARS-CoV-2 in Healthy Adults Volunteers Fully Vaccinated Followed by an Extension Period to Study a Fourth Dose Administration. NCT05142553 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Safety and Immunogenicity of Influenza and COVID-19 Combination Vaccine NCT04961541 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.