Effect of Oral (Z)-Endoxifen in Premenopausal Women With Measurable Breast Density
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-03-12, after 2021-12-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbreastmeasurablesitumelanoma
Phrases that lowered it: screeningritonavirdensitybmithe study -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- endoxifen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Genotype and Phenotype Guided Supplementation of TAMoxifen Standard Therapy With ENDOXifen in Breast Cancer Patients NCT03931928 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- E4Relief (Response to Estetrol in Life Improvement for MEnopausal-associated Hot Flushes) NCT02834312 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3, Randomized, Three-Cycle, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate Induction of Secretory Conversion of Endometrium and Withdrawal Bleeding for Secondary Amenorrhea NCT02019589 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
- A Safety and Efficacy Study of the Combination Estradiol and Progesterone to Treat Vasomotor Symptoms NCT01942668 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Dose-ranging Study of the Efficacy of ESN364 in Postmenopausal Women Suffering Vasomotor Symptoms (Hot Flashes) NCT03192176 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.