Effect of Lactulose and/or Polyethylene Glycol Solution for Bowel Preparation for Colonscopy Procedures
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-11-30, after 2021-09-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: failureheartacutecoronarychronic
Phrases that lowered it: participantspatientsevaluatethe efficacydiseases -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 56.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 116746 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 116746 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12063 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 56.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lactulose, polyethylene glycol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- 2 Regimens of Lactulose for Colonoscopy Preparation in Adults NCT01887470 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Prospective Trial Comparing Low-volume Bowel Preparation Methods NCT02250196 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Oral Sulfate Solution on Bowel Preparation for Colonoscopy NCT05465889 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Split-dose of PEG Compared With NaP Solution for Colonoscopy Preparation: A Randomized, Controlled Trial NCT01229800 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Prospective Trial Comparing Polyethylene Glycol and Sodium Picosulphate With Magnesium Citrate NCT01778192 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.