The Cardiac Effects of Empagliflozin in Patients With High Risk of Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: riskheartdiseasecardiacplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: patientstreatmenttrialminsevere
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 56.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 84 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 26753 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Metabolic Effects of Empagliflozin in Patients With High Risk of Heart Failure NCT05042973 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Empagliflozin in Heart Failure Patients With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT03198585 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• EMPA Acute Heart Failure NCT03554200 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• This Study Tests Empagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF). The Study Looks at How Far Patients Can Walk in 6 Minutes and at Their Heart Failure Symptoms. NCT03448406 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) NCT03057951 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.