Development of AWZ1066S, a Small Molecule Anti-Wolbachia Candidate Macrofilaricide Drug

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: smallsafety tolerabilityascendingtolerability andthe safety
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersparticipantsmasskg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacokinetics & Pharmacodynamics of Diethylcarbamazine (DEC)+ Albendazole (ALB) + Ivermectin (IVE) NCT02845713 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Eval 3-Drug Therapy Diethylcarbamize, Albendazole and Ivermectin That Could Accelerate LF Elimination Outside of Africa NCT01975441 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Adverse Events, Change in Disease Activity and How Oral ABBV-4083 Capsules When Given Alone or In Combination With Albendazole Capsules Moves in The Body of Adult Participants With Onchocerca Volvulus Infection NCT04913610 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• Safety of a Single Dose of Moxidectin Compared With Ivermectin in Individuals Living in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas and in Individuals Living in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas With High Levels of Lymphatic Filariasis Co-endemicity Receiving Concomitant Albendazole NCT04311671 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Microfilaricidal Kinetics of Imatinib for the Treatment of Loa Loa NCT02644525 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.