The Efficacy and Safety of Pyramax in Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Patients (Phase3)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-24, after 2021-10-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientspancreatictherapylifetrial
Phrases that lowered it: evaluateand safetyvirus19moderate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 218 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 26 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 99.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- artesunate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Efficacy and Safety of Pyramax in Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Patients NCT04475107 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Pilot Clinical Trial to Explore Efficacy and Safety of Pyramax in Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Patients NCT05633420 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2 Study of APX-115 in Hospitalized Patients With Confirmed Mild to Moderate COVID-19. NCT04880109 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
- Asunercept for the Treatment of Patients With Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Disease NCT05639192 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Antroquinonol in Mild-Moderate COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients NCT04523181 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.