Allergen Challenge Trial of IRL201104 in Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-27, after 2021-11-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paingreaterdefinedchronicor equal
Phrases that lowered it: rhinitisallergenpollennasalasthma -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Grass Pollen Immunotherapy Plus Dupilumab for Tolerance Induction NCT04502966 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of PQ Grass in Subjects With Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis and/or Rhinoconjunctivitis Induced by Grass Pollen NCT05540717 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Demonstration of Equivalence and Early Onset of a Novel Anti-allergic Nasal Spray Compared to Marketed Nasal Spray NCT03755557 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Comparison of Mometasone Nasal Spray, Nasonex Nasal Spray, Nasonex Nasal Spray Suspension, & Placebo for Treatment of Seasonal Allergies for Safety, Efficacy, & Superiority in 1520 Male & Female Volunteers NCT02109185 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Study of CM310 in Subjects With Allergic Rhinitis NCT05908032 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.