A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of HMI-115 in Subjects With Endometriosis-Associated Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject haspainsubject mustand efficacysubject is
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatesubjectsbleedingulcer
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate Efficacy and Safety of OG-6219 BID in 3 Dose Levels Compared With Placebo in Participants Aged 18 to 49 With Moderate to Severe Endometriosis-related Pain NCT05560646 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of MT-2990 in Women With Endometriosis NCT03840993 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of OBE2109 in Subjects With Endometriosis NCT02778399 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Elagolix Tablets in Women With Moderate or Severe Endometriosis-associated Pain NCT06076486 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• The Pharmacokinetic(PK)/Pharmacodynamics(PD) Study of SHR7280 Tablets in Premenopausal Subjects With Endometriosis. NCT04417972 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.