A Study Assessing the Mass Balance, Pharmacokinetics, and Metabolite Profiles of a Single Oral Dose of [14C]-INCB086550
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-03-25, after 2022-01-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hourschronichcvwillingness tointerval
Phrases that lowered it: healthyproductsinvestigatorscreeningproduct -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 39.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 35 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 99 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 39.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 38 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- incb086550
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of INCB000631 When Administered Orally to Healthy Adult Participants NCT07039929 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, & Food Effect of Oral INCB000631 to Healthy Adult Participants NCT06775327 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of INCB160058 When Administered Orally to Healthy Adult Participant NCT06213818 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Food on the Single-Dose Pharmacokinetics and a Drug-Drug Interaction Evaluation of Itraconazole and Carbamazepine on INCB123667 When Administered Orally to Healthy Adult Participants NCT06909162 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Study Assessing the Mass Balance, Pharmacokinetics, and Metabolite Profiles of a Single Oral Dose of [14C]-INCB123667 in Healthy Male Participants NCT07218744 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.