Pilot Study on BP1.4979 Effect on Binge Eating Disorders
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-08-21, after 2022-03-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationdiagnosis ofpriordefinedplacebo controlled
Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andnicotineaccording -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 21 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- SPD489 in Adults Aged 18-55 Years With Moderate to Severe Binge Eating Disorder NCT01718509 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Forced-dose Titration of SPD489 in Adults With Binge Eating Disorder NCT01291173 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Evaluate the Maintenance of Efficacy of SPD489 in Adults Aged 18-55 Years With Moderate to Severe Binge Eating Disorder NCT02009163 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Oral ACT-539313 in the Treatment of Adults With Moderate to Severe Binge Eating Disorder NCT04753164 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- SPD489 in Adults Aged 18-55 Years With Moderate to Severe Binge Eating Disorder NCT01718483 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.