Study to Evaluate ARD-101 in Adults With Obesity

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabetesmetforminwith typehba1ccancer
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatescreeningkgblood pressureecg
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate ARD-101 in Adults Receiving Bariatric Surgery NCT05215847 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Double-Blind, Multi-Center, Randomized Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Velneperit (S-2367) and Orlistat Administered Individually or Combined With a Reduced Calorie Diet (RCD) in Obese Subjects NCT01126970 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Xla1 Christensenella Minuta, Phase I, Randomized, Partially Placebo-controlled Double-blind Protocol, Evaluating Safety, Tolerability and Impact on the Gut Microbiota in Healthy Volunteers, Overweight and Obese Adults NCT04663139 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of HSG4112 in Overweight and Obese Patients NCT05197556 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of RM-493 in Obese Participants NCT01749137 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.