Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Dupilumab in the Treatment of Keloids

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectwomenacutepulmonarycm
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetythe efficacysafety ofasthma
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 11.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 142792 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 266 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Confirm the Efficacy and Safety of Different Dupilumab Dose Regimens in Adults With Atopic Dermatitis (AD) NCT02395133 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Efficacy 2 Part Study of Identification of Keloid Biomarkers and Effect of QAX576 on Keloid Recurrence NCT00987545 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Remlarsen (MRG-201) Following Intradermal Injection in Subjects With a History of Keloids NCT03601052 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Dupilumab in Japanese Patients With Atopic Dermatitis NCT04678882 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Fractional Collagen Synthesis Within Keloid Scars and Identify Biomarkers of Keloid Scars NCT01978301 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.