ALT-801 in Overweight and Obese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withplacebo controlledblind placeboeffectiveprior
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsevaluate theto evaluatepharmacodynamicstype diabetes
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ALT-801 in Diabetic and Non-Diabetic Overweight and Obese Subjects With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) NCT05006885 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Extension of ALT-801 in Diabetic and Non-Diabetic Overweight and Obese Subjects With (NAFLD) NCT05292911 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study of Aleglitazar in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Have Not Previously Received Anti-Hyperglycemic Therapy NCT01691755 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AZD6234 in Participants Living With Overweight or Obesity With Type 2 Diabetes Who Are on a Stable Dose of GLP-1 Receptor Agonist NCT06851858 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study of Aleglitazar in Combination With Metformin in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Are Inadequately Controlled With Sulfonylurea Alone or Sulfonylurea Plus Metformin Therapy NCT01691989 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.