A Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of HSK21542 in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease-Associated Pruritus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcellfailurecarcinomathe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatethe trialand safetyscreeningtopical
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate the Safety of LT5001 Drug Product for Uremic Pruritus in Hemodialysis Patients NCT04393675 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate IV CR845 in Hemodialysis Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Pruritus NCT02858726 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of IV CR845 in Hemodialysis Patients, and Its Efficacy in Patients With Uremic Pruritus NCT02229929 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CR845 in Hemodialysis Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Pruritus (KALM-1) NCT03422653 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Metabolism and Excretory of HSK21542 in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients NCT06238388 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.