A Study Investigating Lu AG22515 in Healthy Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-08-05, after 2022-03-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitythe safetyplaceboascendingtolerability pharmacokinetics
Phrases that lowered it: healthykgjapaneselusafety of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 131 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 34 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Tolerability Study of Lu AG06466 in Healthy Young Japanese and Caucasian Participants NCT05177029 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Tolerability of Lu AG06474 in Healthy Young Men NCT05003687 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study Investigating the Movement of Lu AG09222 Into, Through, and Out of the Body of Healthy Caucasian, Chinese, and Japanese Participants NCT05304910 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Drug-Drug Interactions in Healthy Adult Participants NCT07797621 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Trial Investigating the Pain-relieving Properties of Lu AG06474 in Healthy Adult Participants NCT06077786 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.